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瑞麟资本周报10.30 | 全球股市及英镑处下跌状态,欧洲各国面临不同压力

2018-10-31

 

 
 
 

瑞麟资本投资管理部负责人Duncan Donald先生分享全球金融市场一周概要。瑞麟资本是欧笙投资母公司瑞麟集团的核心组成部分,办公地点位于英国伦敦,是中欧结合的金融平台。为投资者在地产、私募以及流动与固定资产市场方面提供广泛的投资机会与一站式的管理服务。

同时,瑞麟资本也可以通过银行的金融服务平台管理投资、发行支付卡,以及向高净值人群提供财富管理和支付解决方案。

 
 

 

以下为Duncan Donald先生一周全球金融市场回顾的主要观点,以供投资者决策参考。

 

 

全球股市进一步下跌

 

上周全球股票市场进一步下跌,这是2018年以来股票市场比较严重的一次下跌。标准普尔指数从九月底的高点下跌10%,纳斯达克指数也到达2008年来的糟糕的一次。

 

Last week brought further significant downside pressure for global stock markets, turning this in to a serious correction of the positive appreciation we have seen throughout 2018.  The S&P 500 Index pulled back 10% from the highs we saw at the end of September and the Nasdaq is on course for its worst down month since 2008.

 

 

我们正处于财报季,一些对于像亚马逊这类公司的负面预测也使得股市动荡,但这不是起因。一些其它原因如贸易战,退欧,意大利以及美国利率上升都对这些动荡起到作用。本周开市首先看到中国股市下跌,但市场略见平稳。但是本周随着个人收入(包括苹果)以及周五美国就业数据到来,加上下周即将到来的美国中期选举,本周注定是市场活跃的一周

 

Whilst we are in earning season and slightly less positive forecasts from companies of the size of Amazon are contributing to this move, they are not the cause.  The underlying concerns over the Trade War, Brexit, Italy and rising interest rates in the US remain the drivers behind this move.  Markets have started slightly more positively this week after an early sell off in Chinese equities first thing.  But with another big week of earnings (including Apple) as well as US employment data on Friday, plus the US midterm election hype likely coming at the start of next week, there is certainly scope for heightened volatility this week.

 

 

英镑依旧处于下跌状态

 

在英国,英镑下跌,因为我们仍然没有看到切实的退欧方案。上周虽然英国政府的正面评论导致英镑略微上涨,但是由于来自欧盟的消息不多,整体来说英镑还是处于下跌状态。英国国内方面,特蕾莎梅经历了非常严峻的1922委员会,原本认为她的政党内部会对她投不信任票。之前是有保守党成员写信表示不满,但这是不够的。有报道称她在会议中表现很出色,但显然,随着时间越来越接近退欧期限,她更需要在和欧盟的会议中如此表现。英国预算计划于周一下午公布,但是其进展性和方面会因退欧带来的不确定性而受到阻碍。

 

 

In the UK, the Pound traded consistently heavy, as we remain no closer to a tangible Brexit solution.  Last week we really started to see the small surges in the Pound on optimistic comments by UK Government and EU sources lessen in size and frequency, with a very clear downward trend forming. Domestically, Theresa May came through a very tough internal 1922 meeting, where it was thought we may see an internal party vote of no confidence. Whilst there were Conservative party members writing letters of discontent, there were not enough. It was reported that she put in a strong performance at the meeting, but evidently she needs to start doing so in meetings with the EU if we are to meet Brexit deadlines. The UK Budget is scheduled for Monday afternoon where again progression and direction will be hampered by the uncertainties of Brexit. 

 

 

 

欧洲其他国家动态

 

上周对德国总理安吉拉默克尔的基民盟来说是艰难的,是因为在黑森的选举,她同时输给了绿党和极右翼党。这样一来,再次对她的能力产生质疑并造成压力,加上意大利和英国的情况。致使她于周一宣布2021年后她将不会举行再次选举意大利方面,市场略显缓解,标准普尔没有给出最低评级,而是把意大利主权债信评级展望调降至“负面”(原本预期他们会和穆迪一周前那样给出只比垃圾级高一个级距)。

 

 

It was a tough weekend for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party, which scraped through the elections in the region of Hesse, with further votes were lost to both Green and Far Right parties. This again casts doubts on her abilities to lead with domestic pressures, plus the weighing issues in Italy and the UK.  This has led to her on Monday announcing that she will not be running for re-election post 2021.  In Italy, there was a slight glint of a positive, in that Standard and Poor’s chose not to cut their rating, but placed them on negative watch (when it was expected that they would follow the lead of Moody’s who cut them to one notch above junk just a week ago).

 

本周重头戏和重大数据都将于周尾出现,首先会是周四的英国央行货币政策委员会会议。普遍认为利率会保持不变,通胀报告也会在相同时间出来,制造业数据同样也是那天会稍早一些出来,这些都是需要关注的英国数据。在美国,周五我们会看到月度的非农就业,就业和平均时薪数据。基于极端的气候,非农就业数据预计会降低至175,000。自然的,我们会看到下周二开始的美国中期选举,预计在这之前会看到一些政治性的动荡

 

This week’s main events and data comes towards the end of the week, starting with the Bank of England’s Monetary policy committee meeting on Thursday. Whilst its is universally expected to keep interest rates on hold, the inflation report released at the same time and the manufacturing data earlier that day will be the ones to watch for the UK. In the US, the monthly release of Non-Farm Payrolls, Employment and Average Earning comes on Friday. The Non-Farm Payrolls number is expected lower at 175k, based on the effects of extreme weather.  Naturally, we will see the build up to next week’s US midterm elections next Tuesday, so expect to see political posturing ahead of that.

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