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瑞麟资本周报9.12 | 英国退欧、新兴市场引发市场波动,东南亚地区销售显著(视频)

2018-09-14

完整版视频请点击:https://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMzgxOTE2MzM2OA==.html?spm=a2h3j.8428770.3416059.1

 

瑞麟资本投资管理部负责人Duncan Donald先生,分享全球金融市场一周概要。瑞麟资本是欧笙投资母公司瑞麟集团的核心组成部分,办公地点位于英国伦敦,是中欧结合的金融平台。为投资者在地产、私募以及流动与固定资产市场方面提供广泛的投资机会与一站式的管理服务。

 

同时,瑞麟资本也可以通过银行的金融服务平台管理投资、发行支付卡,以及向高净值人群提供财富管理和支付解决方案。

 

以下为Duncan Donald先生一周全球金融市场回顾的主要观点,以供投资者决策参考。

 

 

01

 

英国退欧引起金融市场波动,GDP月率上升0.3%

 

 

夏天即将结束,金融市场上周是一个典型动荡的一周。贸易战显示:英国退欧和新兴市场的形势占据了头条新闻并带来波动。

 

在英国,欧盟的Barnier和脱欧谈判代表Raab的会谈正在进行中,甚至可能在上周进行适度的进步。 Barnier声称85%的英国脱欧提案是令人满意的,这自然会给市场带来轻微的积极影响,但当然最终15%的优势点以及是否可以找到互惠妥协将是关键进展。由于“消息来源”声称德国的Angela Merkel准备与英国保持一致以确保未来贸易,这对英镑确实带来了积极影响,自然的,德国支持者及其在欧盟内部的影响对英国来说将会非常积极,但在几个小时内,默克尔本人否认了这一说法并且市场得到了适当的纠正。

 

谈判的关键方面是爱尔兰的边境问题以及“何时”或“如果”可以实现。上周表现出一些进展,但仍然存在困难。

 

本周我们已经看到国内生产总值数据的公布,尽管英国脱欧的背景下,其国内生产总值月率仍然上升0.3%,其中以服务业领先。星期二发布了平均收入和就业数据,预计两者都会带来更大的积极影响。周四, Mark Carneys货币政策委员会会议在中午举行。在上个月英国加息以及来自英国的持续积极数据背后,没有预期会议的利率变动,唯一的潜在波动来自英国退欧声明发布后的评论。

 

With the markets exiting the summer holiday period it was another typically volatile week last week. Obviously, the trade war narrative, Brexit and the Emerging markets situation dominated the headlines and brought volatility.

 

In the UK the talks between the EU’s Barnier and Brexit negotiator Raab were ongoing and it could even be argued moderately progressive last week.  Barnier was vocal in stating that 85% of the UK’s proposal was agreeable, naturally this brought slight positivity to the markets, but of course the finer points of what is in that final 15% and whether mutually beneficial compromise can be found will be key for progression.  There was also a whipsaw in the markets as “sources” claimed that Germany’s Angela Merkel was prepared to be accommodative with the UK to ensure future trade, this really brought positivity to the pound, naturally, Germanys support and their influence within the EU would have been enormously positive for the UK, but within a couple of hours this statement was denied by Merkel herself and the market duly corrected.

 

The crucial aspect of the negotiations lays with the border control in Ireland and ‘when’ or ‘if’ this can be achieved. The last week showed some progress but this remains the potential stumbling bloc for progress.

 

This week we have already seen the release on GDP numbers which showed a 0.3% monthly rise in GDP despite the Brexit backdrop, with the services sector leading the way.  Tuesday brings us Average Earnings and Employment data, both are expected to bring further positivity.  Thursday, we have Mark Carneys Monetary Policy Committee meeting at midday. On the back of a UK rate hike last month and continually positive data from the UK there is no expectation for rate movement from this meeting, with the only potential volatility coming from any Brexit comments upon release of the statement, or from Mark Carney when he speaks on Friday.

 

02

 

预测美联储准备本月再次加息

 

美国关键经济指标在周五公布就业数据后依然强劲。非农就业人数为20.1万,高于预期19.1万,上个月则为14.7万。平均收益数据也有很大的优势。由于特朗普将贸易战的注意力转移到日本以及对领先的美国科技公司实施更严格的监管,美国股市和货币本周走势较为沉重,所以这种积极性是值得欢迎的消息。金融市场注意力转向了美国的利率以及他们是否会在9月份加息,经济学家们正在试图改变形势,原因是有70%预测加息可能会出现问题。

 

就在周五伦敦收盘前,我们确实看到特朗普表示他正在考虑额外向中国商品征收2670亿美元的关税,此外还有已知的500亿美元和200亿美元。这拖累了重磅股并将标准普尔指数降至每周低点2,863点,因此这是标准普尔指数在相当一段时间内首次出现下跌,但迄今仍为7.8%。但是,市场出现紧张情绪,特朗普几乎所有中国进口产品都受到最新威胁,因此我们可能会看到中国对这些威胁自然的反击。

 

在美国周三公布了PPI数据,随后是周四的通胀数据,以及周五的零售销售,市场将等待几乎最终确认贸易战,美联储可能准备本月再次加息。

 

In the US key economic indicators remained strong with the release of employment data on Friday.  Non-Farm Payrolls came in above expectation at 201k against expectation of 191k and last months number of 147k. There was also a strong beat in Average Earnings numbers.  US stocks and the currency had been having a heavier week with Trump shifting his trade war attentions on Japan and the implementation of greater regulation on leading US tech companies, so this positivity was welcome news.  Attention turned to US rates and whether they will hike in September, with economists revising their thoughts and 70% now forecasting a hike could be on the cards.

 

Just before the London close on Friday we did see Trump state that he was considering an additional $267 Billion of tariffs onto Chinese goods in addition $50 Billion and $200 Billion already known. This weighed heavy and brought the S&P down to the weekly lows at 2,863 so whilst it was the first down turn we have seen in the S&P in quite some time it remains 7.8% up on the year to date. But, there is a nervousness in the markets, with the latest threat Trump has encapsulated virtually all Chinese imports, so it is likely we could see natural retaliation from China to these threats.

 

This week in the States we see the release of PPI data on Wednesday followed by Inflation data Thursday and finally Retail sales on Friday where the market will await almost final confirmation that trade war aside the Federal Reserve could be prepared to hike again this month.

 

03

 

右翼占据立足点使亚洲欧元走低,欧洲央行对利率收紧表示满意

 

欧元区度过了有趣的一周,首先是有消息称瑞典选举没有带来明显的胜利,他们将不会有数周甚至数月的内部谈判来组建一个领导党。令人担忧的是,被认为是右翼的反欧盟和移民党占据了一个强有力的立足点,这使亚洲的欧元走低。上周德国工业生产也令汽车行业出现问题的原因令人失望。

 

本周四,当马里奥德拉吉提出欧洲央行的利率决定时,所有的目光都集中在欧洲央行。欧洲央行似乎对稳定的利率收紧态度感到满意。预计他们将重申在12月停止资产购买计划。认识到欧洲央行不太可能在至少2019年夏天之前实现利率正常化。但在他的声明中,我们将有机会听取德拉吉先生作为欧洲央行领导人的最后一次会议。他肯定会在关于英国退欧、新兴市场扩大、贸易战、意大利债券、瑞典及其自己的继任者的问答环节中遇到问题,并列出了欧洲这样的潜在绊脚石,难怪他们是小心翼翼地考虑他们的速度路径而不急于起飞。

 

In the Eurozone we also have an interesting week ahead. It started with the news that the Swedish election had brought no clear victor and they will no have weeks and possibly months of internal negotiations to form a leading party. What is a concern is that the perceived right-wing anti-EU and immigration party took a strong foothold, this brought out the Euro lower in Asia open. Last weeks German Industrial production was also a disappointment with problems in the auto sector attributed to the lower reading.

 

All eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday this week, when Mario Draghi delivers the ECB’s interest rate decision. The ECB seem content with a steady approach to the tightening of interest rates. It is expected that they will reiterate that they will cease with the asset purchasing programme in December. Perception is that the ECB will unlikely move towards interest rate normalisation until at least summer 2019. But in his statement, we will get a chance to hear from Mr Draghi in one of his last meetings as ECB leader.  He will most certainly be met with questions in the Q&A session regarding Brexit, Emerging Markets Contagion, Trade War, Italian Bonds, Sweden and his own successor, with a list of potential stumbling blocks for Europe like that, it is little wonder they are carefully considering their.

 

04

 

南非及土耳其货币下跌,东南亚国家销售显著

 

在新兴市场,我们本周开始看一眼熟悉的南非和土耳其货币当天下跌1%。随着新兴亚洲的增长令人担忧,马来西亚,菲律宾和印度尼西亚出现了显着的销售起色。

 

雷达的主要活动将是本周晚些时候举行的土耳其和俄罗斯中央银行会议,双方将有机会展示他们将在多大程度上保护其陷入困境的股市和货币。我们都知道,Erdogan一直以来都非常反加息,但此时它似乎是保护经济的少有的几种选择之一。

 

In the Emerging markets we start the week looking at the familiar sight of South Africa and Turkish currency sitting 1% down on the day. We again saw a week of limited progress last week with just one day in the ‘green’ naturally fears over contagion continue to grow with Emerging Asia growing with concern as Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia saw notable selling.

 

The main event on the radar will be the Turkish and Russian Central Bank Meetings later this week where both will have the opportunity to show how far they will go to protect their ailing stock market and currency. We know that Erdogan has historically been very anti rate hike but at this moment in time it seems one of the few options available to protect the economy.
 

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